Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 2.310800 2.449804 2.601189 2.779987 2.987719 3.224542 3.519715
2025-05-11 2.156050 2.331929 2.532502 2.782642 3.093256 3.477084 4.007283
2025-05-18 2.018248 2.209292 2.433411 2.722860 3.098890 3.591573 4.330175
2025-05-25 1.932242 2.136434 2.381778 2.708467 3.150702 3.763733 4.764715
2025-06-01 1.859588 2.072360 2.332932 2.688685 3.187382 3.914391 5.203822
2025-06-08 1.797052 2.015621 2.287540 2.666724 3.214719 4.051200 5.660980
2025-06-15 1.762234 1.990699 2.279973 2.693216 3.312261 4.312461 6.461991
2025-06-22 1.686053 1.908848 2.192496 2.600814 3.219637 4.238740 6.517793
2025-06-29 1.652091 1.879678 2.173032 2.602759 3.271873 4.425327 7.281299
2025-07-06 1.598236 1.822226 2.112470 2.540859 3.215862 4.403835 7.494820
2025-07-13 1.584218 1.816246 2.121134 2.580326 3.327798 4.723083 8.962283
2025-07-20 1.582506 1.826137 2.151633 2.654064 3.506109 5.227258 11.955311
2025-07-27 1.555323 1.802081 2.135221 2.657633 3.567930 5.512037 15.018246
2025-08-03 1.529569 1.778817 2.118560 2.659206 3.625960 5.809311 20.064114
2025-08-10 1.489127 1.734013 2.068925 2.604643 3.571486 5.800707 22.421935
2025-08-17 1.463134 1.708237 2.045756 2.591447 3.595586 6.016829 32.154424
2025-08-24 1.437409 1.681959 2.020694 2.573416 3.607919 6.206227 54.375456
2025-08-31 1.412647 1.656248 1.995419 2.553417 3.613987 6.381843 193.565399
2025-09-07 1.401241 1.648732 1.996572 2.577512 3.713940 6.912733 NaN
2025-09-14 1.361854 1.600869 1.935954 2.493333 3.575193 6.556988 NaN
2025-09-21 1.346683 1.586840 1.925673 2.495108 3.622635 6.904710 NaN
2025-09-28 1.317090 1.551749 1.882700 2.438547 3.537852 6.727028 NaN
2025-10-05 1.312456 1.551898 1.892863 2.474625 3.661749 7.435386 NaN